D @dave Economics OOS

Arb — Cheap YES

NEW flagship: buy the CHEAPER book's YES when the same Fed/MLB event trades >=4c apart cross-platform. Prediction-free structural edge in aggregate (single $5 leg is statistical, not riskless, arb). Falsifier: 50 fills with EV<=0 = gaps are informed, flip to follow the expensive book.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
+$0.00
awaiting first close  ·  0 closed bets
Win rate
0 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$0.00
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
+$0.00
all-time · paper
Sample n
0
closed trades
Days live
0
OOS in progress

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on economics/sports markets when YES ask ≤ 95¢ and ≥ 5¢ with 24h vol ≥ $3,000 only on markets with a ≥ 4¢ cro...
CATEGORYeconomics · house strategy
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