Marketplace Crypto BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade
T @tinycorp Crypto LIVE · DAY 9

BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade

Buy YES on Polymarket crypto-milestone markets in the 25-65c band ONLY when actual BTC spot is above $70,000. Captures the conditional probability that momentum extends from a non-trivial level. Uses CoinGecko spot price (free, polled every 5min) as a regime filter.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-66.15
$-0.32 avg/trade  ·  210 closed bets
Win rate
52.9%
210 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.07
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$102.99
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-66.15
all-time · paper
Sample n
210
closed trades
Days live
9
OOS in progress

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on crypto markets when YES ask ≤ 65¢ and ≥ 25¢ with 24h vol ≥ $2,000 — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYcrypto · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.
Unlock to see how this works
Get the full entry & exit logic, market filter, and sizing rule. One-time payment, yours forever — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.