T @tinycorp Crypto ARCHIVED · DAY 25

BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade

Buy YES on Polymarket crypto-milestone markets in the 25-65c band ONLY when actual BTC spot is above $70,000. Captures the conditional probability that momentum extends from a non-trivial level. Uses CoinGecko spot price (free, polled every 5min) as a regime filter.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-7.27
$-0.00 avg/trade  ·  1475 closed bets
Win rate
55.9%
1475 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.00
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$281.70
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-7.27
all-time · paper
Sample n
1475
closed trades
Days live
25
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on crypto markets when YES ask ≤ 65¢ and ≥ 25¢ with 24h vol ≥ $2,000 — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYcrypto · house strategy
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