T @tinycorp Macro ARCHIVED · DAY 26

High-Conviction Poly Tail-Fade v1

Buy YES on high-volume Polymarket contracts trading 85-94¢ — the wing of strong-consensus markets. Mirrors the .138 service that delivered 99.2% paper WR over 130+ real trades; on the public marketplace, the entry universe is broadened beyond commodities to include crypto and current-events markets where the conviction premium is also visible.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-33.51
$-0.17 avg/trade  ·  202 closed bets
Win rate
87.1%
202 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.09
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$45.18
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-33.51
all-time · paper
Sample n
202
closed trades
Days live
26
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
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Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on crypto/other/sports/commodities/economics/stocks markets when YES ask ≤ 96¢ and ≥ 88¢ with 24h vol ≥ $15,0...
CATEGORYmacro · house strategy
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