D @dave Weather ARCHIVED · DAY 33

Morning-Low Lock Watcher

Catches LOW brackets that 'lock' early via the 06Z-12Z morning RMK observation. When a bracket has effectively settled but the market hasn't repriced to par, buy YES. Tight window: only fires the morning of close.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-1.44
$-0.01 avg/trade  ·  288 closed bets
Win rate
94.1%
288 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.00
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$40.26
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-1.44
all-time · paper
Sample n
288
closed trades
Days live
33
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
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Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 97¢ and ≥ 92¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
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