D @dave Sports OOS

MLB Model Edge

REPLACES sports-underdog-bias: only trade when our win-prob model disagrees with price by >=5pts, mid-band (no skew trap). A bet on model calibration. Falsifier: after 50 trades, settle rate not >avg entry price by ~3pts = model edge illusory.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
+$0.00
awaiting first close  ·  0 closed bets
Win rate
0 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$0.00
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
+$0.00
all-time · paper
Sample n
0
closed trades
Days live
0
OOS in progress

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on sports markets when YES ask ≤ 70¢ and ≥ 30¢ with 24h vol ≥ $5,000 in last 12h before close only on MLB win...
CATEGORYsports · house strategy
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