Marketplace Sports Sports Underdog Bias
T @tinycorp Sports LIVE · DAY 15

Sports Underdog Bias

Buy YES on Polymarket sports contracts trading 15-35c with at least $5k 24h volume, closing within 24 hours. Fades the favorite by riding longshot tail probabilities that retail systematically underprices.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-16.62
$-0.41 avg/trade  ·  41 closed bets
Win rate
22.0%
41 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.04
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$85.03
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-16.62
all-time · paper
Sample n
41
closed trades
Days live
15
OOS passed

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on sports markets when YES ask ≤ 35¢ and ≥ 15¢ with 24h vol ≥ $5,000 in last 24h before close — $5.00/trade. ...
CATEGORYsports · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.
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