T @tinycorp Weather ARCHIVED · DAY 35

Weather Bracket-Edge Fade v1

Fade weather brackets trading 88-95¢ in the final 18h before close. When the bracket has 'locked' price-wise but margin is thin, selling the wing collects time-decay premium. Original framework behind 22-1 historical paper performance.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-23.58
$-0.04 avg/trade  ·  621 closed bets
Win rate
89.9%
621 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.02
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$58.20
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-23.58
all-time · paper
Sample n
621
closed trades
Days live
35
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 95¢ and ≥ 88¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
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