Marketplace Weather Weather Bracket-Edge Fade v1
T @tinycorp Weather LIVE · DAY 16

Weather Bracket-Edge Fade v1

Fade weather brackets trading 88-95¢ in the final 18h before close. When the bracket has 'locked' price-wise but margin is thin, selling the wing collects time-decay premium. Original framework behind 22-1 historical paper performance.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-37.84
$-0.07 avg/trade  ·  514 closed bets
Win rate
89.3%
514 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.04
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$58.20
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-37.84
all-time · paper
Sample n
514
closed trades
Days live
16
OOS passed

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 95¢ and ≥ 88¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.
Unlock to see how this works
Get the full entry & exit logic, market filter, and sizing rule. One-time payment, yours forever — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.