Weather Deep-Discount NO-Tail
Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets trading 12-30c — the long-tail brackets that the market thinks are unlikely. Most lose, but each win pays 4-8x. Cap at 12 fills/day to avoid over-firing on the many low-price brackets that exist. Diversifies the catalog away from fade-economics — wins are large here, losses bounded by small entry cost.
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-576.47
$-3.02 avg/trade · 191 closed bets
Win rate
9.9%
191 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.49
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$576.47
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-576.47
all-time · paper
Sample n
191
closed trades
Days live
14
OOS passed
Cumulative P&L
Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
| Time (UTC) | Market | Plat | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Outcome |
|---|
Strategy rules
Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 30¢ and ≥ 12¢ in last 24h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.