Marketplace Weather Weather Fade-on-Bid-Drop
T @tinycorp Weather LIVE · DAY 9

Weather Fade-on-Bid-Drop

Buy YES when a weather brackets ask drops 5+ cents in the last 30 minutes - captures over-reactions to rumor-driven sells before the bracket settles. Pure intra-day momentum signal, uses our 30h snapshot history.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-442.64
$-0.63 avg/trade  ·  701 closed bets
Win rate
48.6%
701 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.13
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$445.33
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-442.64
all-time · paper
Sample n
701
closed trades
Days live
9
OOS in progress

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 85¢ and ≥ 40¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.
Unlock to see how this works
Get the full entry & exit logic, market filter, and sizing rule. One-time payment, yours forever — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.