T @tinycorp Weather ARCHIVED · DAY 32

Weather Grade-Gated v3

v3 layers a grade filter (A/A+ only) on top of the v2 fade gates. The grading function blends bracket-edge margin, RMK coverage, volume, and dewpoint distance into a single score. Production version runs $5/trade with $25/day cap.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-14.47
$-0.03 avg/trade  ·  562 closed bets
Win rate
89.1%
562 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.01
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$56.98
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-14.47
all-time · paper
Sample n
562
closed trades
Days live
32
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
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Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 92¢ and ≥ 88¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
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