Weather Mid-Band Fade (+EV)
Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets trading 65-78c, in the last 18h before close. Lower entry band = larger upside per win (22-35c) vs typical -5c fade strategies. At 80% win rate (mid-band brackets are less crowded so historical WR is lower than 85+c locks), positive EV: 0.80*$1.30 - 0.20*$5 = +$0.04/trade. Designed to be the catalog's honest counter-example to the fade-asymmetry trap.
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-239.94
$-0.43 avg/trade · 554 closed bets
Win rate
44.6%
554 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.08
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$293.40
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-239.94
all-time · paper
Sample n
554
closed trades
Days live
9
OOS in progress
Cumulative P&L
Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
| Time (UTC) | Market | Plat | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Outcome |
|---|
Strategy rules
Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 78¢ and ≥ 65¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.