T @tinycorp Weather ARCHIVED · DAY 26

Weather Mid-Band Fade (+EV)

Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets trading 65-78c, in the last 18h before close. Lower entry band = larger upside per win (22-35c) vs typical -5c fade strategies. At 80% win rate (mid-band brackets are less crowded so historical WR is lower than 85+c locks), positive EV: 0.80*$1.30 - 0.20*$5 = +$0.04/trade. Designed to be the catalog's honest counter-example to the fade-asymmetry trap.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-363.42
$-0.54 avg/trade  ·  675 closed bets
Win rate
42.1%
675 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.10
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$409.00
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-363.42
all-time · paper
Sample n
675
closed trades
Days live
26
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
Loading…

Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 78¢ and ≥ 65¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKFree with an account: sign up (no card) and the full rules unlock instantly.
Unlock to see how this works
Get the full entry & exit logic, market filter, and sizing rule. A free account unlocks it instantly — no card.