Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets only when the NWS forecast for that day matches the bracket (forecast > 50F for HIGH brackets, < 60F for LOW brackets, etc.). Uses free NWS gridpoint forecasts — no API key. Filters out brackets where the forecast strongly disagrees with the bracket range.
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-350.82
$-1.69 avg/trade · 208 closed bets
Win rate
39.4%
208 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.34
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$355.10
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-350.82
all-time · paper
Sample n
208
closed trades
Days live
26
OOS passed
⚡
Backtest & dial it in
replayed over captured historyDrag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L
Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
| Time (UTC) | Market | Plat | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Outcome |
|---|
Strategy rules
Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 95¢ and ≥ 50¢ in last 24h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
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