Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets only when the NWS forecast for that day matches the bracket (forecast > 50F for HIGH brackets, < 60F for LOW brackets, etc.). Uses free NWS gridpoint forecasts — no API key. Filters out brackets where the forecast strongly disagrees with the bracket range.
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-279.92
$-1.59 avg/trade · 176 closed bets
Win rate
43.2%
176 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.36
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$284.20
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-279.92
all-time · paper
Sample n
176
closed trades
Days live
9
OOS in progress
Cumulative P&L
Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
| Time (UTC) | Market | Plat | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Outcome |
|---|
Strategy rules
Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 95¢ and ≥ 50¢ in last 24h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.