Marketplace Weather Weather Tail-Reversion v2
T @tinycorp Weather LIVE · DAY 9

Weather Tail-Reversion v2

v2 iteration: same fade core, plus a one-sided dewpoint floor filter that suppressed 50% of historical LOW losses without missing the wins. The dewpoint-distance heuristic — keep — held up under backtest replay.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-56.07
$-0.23 avg/trade  ·  243 closed bets
Win rate
85.2%
243 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.12
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$78.46
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-56.07
all-time · paper
Sample n
243
closed trades
Days live
9
OOS in progress

Cumulative P&L

Live trading since Mar 16, 2026 · paper
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: +$4,580 · trough: -$412
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 94¢ and ≥ 85¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
UNLOCKOne-time $5 for the full rules — or start a 14-day Pro trial to unlock all listed strategies.
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