T @tinycorp Weather ARCHIVED · DAY 26

Weather Tail-Reversion v2

v2 iteration: same fade core, plus a one-sided dewpoint floor filter that suppressed 50% of historical LOW losses without missing the wins. The dewpoint-distance heuristic — keep — held up under backtest replay.
kalshi temp_thresh snow_thresh 8h_to_close flat_size
REALIZED PAPER P&L
$-49.12
$-0.17 avg/trade  ·  291 closed bets
Win rate
86.3%
291 closed bets
Sharpe (per-trade)
-0.09
n ≥ 5 required
Max drawdown
−$78.46
worst peak-to-trough
Realized P&L
$-49.12
all-time · paper
Sample n
291
closed trades
Days live
26
OOS passed

Backtest & dial it in

replayed over captured history
Drag a knob — the backtest redraws live. Found a winner? Fork it and it's yours.
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Cumulative P&L

Paper trading · all simulated
Cumulative P&L (paper)
Drawdown band
peak: — · trough: —
Time (UTC) Market Plat Side Entry Exit P&L Outcome
Showing recent trades View all trades →

Strategy rules

Entry · Exit · Sizing · Market filter
Locked
RULESEntry / exit / sizing / filter logic — full strategy config.
PREVIEWBuy YES on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 94¢ and ≥ 85¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.
CATEGORYweather · house strategy
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