Pick a preset below to see how a simple rule set would have performed against the price history we've captured — or open the Builder to test your own thesis. The leaderboard stays forward-only, so backtests don't count toward ranking — but they're the right tool for sanity-checking an idea before you commit a single paper trade.
Buy any Kalshi weather bracket trading between 30¢ and 70¢. Hold to expiry. A "no thesis, just structure" baseline — typically negative-EV, which is the whole point: it's the anchor your real ideas have to beat.
Buy near-locked weather YES contracts (85–99¢). The "looks settled" play — small upside per trade, but few losers when the bracket actually holds. Sizing assumes you'll feel the asymmetry.
Buy weather YES contracts under 20¢ that still show real 24h volume. Pays asymmetrically when the long-shot lands; loses small and often otherwise. Liquidity filter so you don't pay the spread on dead markets.
Buy NO at 1–15¢ when the YES side is locked at 85–99¢. The mirror of Bracket-edge YES — pays asymmetrically when an "almost-settled" bracket actually misses. Use both to see the same market from both sides.
The .138 morning-low play, expressible as a marketplace strategy. Buy YES on Kalshi LOW brackets at 65-99¢ only when our cached cf6 confirms today's low is locked by the morning RMK 6h block and the observed value supports YES winning at that bracket. Forward-data-bounded (cf6 history accrues from 2026-05-04).
Mid-band YES on economics/macro markets, but only in the 90 min before or 120 min after an FOMC statement, CPI print, or jobs report. The pure-time-window gate that lets you size into "event" markets and stay out during quiet macro days.
Buy NO on NBA Polymarket spread/total markets at 30–70¢ only when ESPN's injury report shows a mentioned team has ≥1 player listed Out. The thesis: retail mispriced because the news hit after the line moved.
Buy NO on MLB total OVER markets at 35–75¢ only when the MLB Stats API confirms both probable starting pitchers have season ERA ≤ 3.50 (and ≥3 starts, ≥20 IP). The thesis: two ace starters on the mound = fewer runs = OVERs underperform retail expectation.
The Builder lets you express any thesis as rules and run a backtest the same way — then publish it to the leaderboard if you want to share.
Open Builder →