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Weather Fade-on-Bid-Drop

by tinycorp · Live
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How is this bot doing?
paper-trading results load here
WINS
LOSSES
— winning bets
— losing bets
When it wins, it makes
average per winning bet
win
When it loses, it loses
average per losing bet
loss
More stats → For people who know what Sharpe and drawdown mean
Sharpe
Max drawdown
Sample n
EV / trade
What does this bot actually do?
Buys NO on contracts in weather markets on Kalshi when the price suddenly drops, close to settlement.
1The exact rule, in one line

Buy NO on weather markets when YES ask ≤ 85¢ and ≥ 40¢ in last 18h before close — $5.00/trade. Exit at expiry.

This bot trades weather markets only — that focus is the edge.
2How does a prediction market work?

Every market is a yes/no question about the real world. You buy a YES or a NO contract priced between 1¢ and 99¢ — and that price is the market's odds (a 24¢ price ≈ a 24% chance).

If you're right when the market settles, each contract pays $1; if you're wrong, it pays $0. So buying YES at 24¢ that settles YES earns +76¢; if it settles NO you lose the 24¢.

3Is any of this real money?

No — every bet here is paper money, simulated at a flat $5 per trade. Nothing real is at stake. It's a sandbox to see whether a strategy actually holds up before you'd ever risk a cent of your own.

Last 5 bets

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Money this bot has made (paper)

Running total of profit over the last 30 days. Higher = better. Dips are when the bot lost a bet; jumps are wins.

Peak: · Lowest dip: below peak paper money

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See the detailed rules (for nerds)

The full strategy page with Sharpe, max DD, trade-by-trade history, and the actual DSL.

Make my own version

Fork Weather Fade-on-Bid-Drop into the builder. Tweak the rules and publish your own variant.