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Tropical Outlook — storms, and the odds they form

Every active tropical system, plus the National Hurricane Center's own formation probabilities for the disturbances it's watching — the 48-hour and 7-day odds a system actually develops. Paired with the live season-count markets. Free NOAA data, sourced honestly.

Why the formation % matters. A named-storm or formation market is a bet on whether a system develops. NHC publishes the official odds it will — so instead of guessing, you can read the government's own 48h / 7-day formation probability next to the market's price. That's a real external signal, not a number you can back out of the market itself. Storm details come straight from NHC's live advisories.

Trade tropical markets on a rule. Gate a bot on NHC activity — e.g. only when a disturbance has ≥40% 7-day formation odds.

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