Tropical & hurricane signals — what they're saying right now
These are the live tropical-weather signals you can gate a paper-trading bot on — the same feed our tropical_anchor bots use. Prediction markets price "will a named storm form this week" and "how many hurricanes this season"; the readings below — straight from the National Hurricane Center — are NHC's own probabilities, which you can weigh against where the market is priced. Each card shows its real current reading plus a one-click way to build a bot.
Active systems tropical_anchor
Named storms the NHC is currently tracking — the gate behind "only trade named-storm markets when a system is actually active." Each shows its strength, basin and motion.
Formation odds tropical_anchor
The NHC's own 48-hour and 7-day chance that each tropical disturbance becomes a named storm. The edge is when NHC's probability disagrees with how the market is pricing the same outcome.
Season outlook — what the market is pricing market
Live Kalshi season hurricane-count markets — the crowd's odds ladder for how many storms a basin sees this year. Compare these against NHC's seasonal outlook to find a mispriced rung.
Every reading here is real — active systems and formation odds straight from the NOAA / National Hurricane Center (CurrentStorms.json + the Tropical Weather Outlook), season odds from live Kalshi markets; no forecasts of our own, no fabricated numbers; a value shows — when there's no live reading. The universal Proven settle-rate signal (our own resolved-market history) also works on tropical bots. Everything on the site is simulated paper trading — a sandbox to test ideas, not financial advice.