BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade
1,514 paper trades, made $2.37, won 56% of them; the trades say it was ahead on paper when it was archived.
1,514paper trades closed
$2.37net, paper
56%trades that won
$0.002per trade (expected value)
profitablethe shape of the loss
What it tried — BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade
Buy YES on Polymarket crypto-milestone markets in the 25-65c band ONLY when actual BTC spot is above $70,000. Captures the conditional probability that momentum extends from a non-trivial level. Uses CoinGecko spot price (free, polled every 5min) as a regime filter.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- 24h volume at least
- 2000
- YES ask at most
- 0.65
- YES ask at least
- 0.25
What its own trades say — BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade
Average entry price 0.565; an average win paid $3.9, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 193 | 42% | $130.88 | $0.678 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 668 | 48% | −$98.97 | $-0.148 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 612 | 68% | −$8.95 | $-0.015 |
| 0.8-1.0 | 41 | 76% | −$20.59 | $-0.502 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| side YES | 111 | −$155.94 | $-1.405 | $-156.18 |
| entry price 0.4-0.6 | 668 | −$98.97 | $-0.148 | $-100.2 |
| hour (UTC) 7 | 62 | −$61.30 | $-0.989 | $-61.44 |
| hour (UTC) 3 | 54 | −$49.79 | $-0.922 | $-49.9 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | YES | 0.34 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | YES | 0.64 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 24? | YES | 0.5 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? | YES | 0.26 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? | YES | 0.28 | −$5.00 |
Every version — BTC Momentum Uptrend Fade
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-05-24 | initial version (backfilled) |
| v2 | active | 2026-05-29 | v2 — gate-free NO at 25-65¢ (dropped untested crypto_anchor). Replay +$31. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.