High-Conviction Poly Tail-Fade v1

macro by tinycorp archived · born 2026-05-22 · traded 2026-05-23 → 2026-06-30 · poly · bought YES

222 paper trades, lost $25.34, won 88% of them; the trades say it won often and lost big when it lost — the tail-seller shape.

222paper trades closed

−$25.34net, paper

88%trades that won

$-0.114per trade (expected value)

tail sellerthe shape of the loss

What it tried — High-Conviction Poly Tail-Fade v1

Buy YES on high-volume Polymarket contracts trading 85-94¢ — the wing of strong-consensus markets. Mirrors the .138 service that delivered 99.2% paper WR over 130+ real trades; on the public marketplace, the entry universe is broadened beyond commodities to include crypto and current-events markets where the conviction premium is also visible.

The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):

24h volume at least: 15000
YES ask at most: 0.96
YES ask at least: 0.88

What its own trades say — High-Conviction Poly Tail-Fade v1

Loss concentrates in hour (UTC) 10 — 7 of 222 trades at $-1.716/trade vs $-0.114 overall.

Average entry price 0.906; an average win paid $0.51, an average loss cost $4.85. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.

By entry price

Entry price	Trades	Won	Net	Per trade
0.8-1.0	222	88%	−$25.34	$-0.114

Where the loss concentrated

Slice	Trades	Net	Per trade	Excess loss vs the bot's average
hour (UTC) 10	7	−$12.01	$-1.716	$-11.21
hour (UTC) 0	131	−$19.41	$-0.148	$-4.45
hour (UTC) 21	5	−$2.52	$-0.504	$-1.95

Its five worst fills

Market	Side	Entry	Result
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In	YES	0.86	−$5.00
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)	YES	0.87	−$5.00
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?	YES	0.86	−$5.00
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24?	YES	0.88	−$5.00
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	YES	0.85	−$5.00

Every version — High-Conviction Poly Tail-Fade v1

Version	Status	Snapshot	Change
v1	retired	2026-05-22	initial version (backfilled)
v2	active	2026-05-29	v2 — tighter YES band 88-96¢ + vol>=15k (Grok V3 creative pivot). Replay +$8.

Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.