Confirmed-Lock Sniper
725 paper trades, lost $99.93, won 88% of them; the trades say it won often and lost big when it lost — the tail-seller shape.
725paper trades closed
−$99.93net, paper
88%trades that won
$-0.138per trade (expected value)
tail sellerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Confirmed-Lock Sniper
Strictest of the lot: only fires when ALL lock criteria converge — absolute-lock evidence, ≥0.7°F bracket edge, ask ≤98¢. The live cron variant SMSes a manual entry suggestion; here, simulated.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- closes within (h)
- 18
- closes no sooner than (h)
- 0.5
- YES ask at most
- 0.98
- YES ask at least
- 0.85
What its own trades say — Confirmed-Lock Sniper
Loss concentrates in hour (UTC) 21 — 82 of 725 trades at $-0.429/trade vs $-0.138 overall.
Average entry price 0.9; an average win paid $0.55, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8-1.0 | 725 | 88% | −$99.93 | $-0.138 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hour (UTC) 21 | 82 | −$35.18 | $-0.429 | $-23.86 |
| hour (UTC) 11 | 62 | −$22.98 | $-0.371 | $-14.45 |
| hour (UTC) 4 | 13 | −$14.64 | $-1.126 | $-12.84 |
| hour (UTC) 23 | 21 | −$10.42 | $-0.496 | $-7.52 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum temperature be 53-54° on May 22, 2026? | YES | 0.85 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 68-69° on May 22, 2026? | YES | 0.86 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.85 | −$5.00 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.87 | −$5.00 |
| Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.86 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Confirmed-Lock Sniper
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-05-22 | initial version (backfilled) |
| v2 | active | 2026-05-29 | v2 — YES + max_concurrent=5 (my counter — caps correlated losses). Replay +$249 vs v1. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.