Crypto Fear Reversion
12 paper trades, lost $12.92, won 33% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape. Its own description says it replaced an earlier bot.
12paper trades closed
−$12.92net, paper
33%trades that won
$-1.077per trade (expected value)
longshot buyerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Crypto Fear Reversion
REPLACES btc-momentum-uptrend: buy mid-band crypto dips ONLY at crowd-capitulation (Fear&Greed<20 + funding<0 + 8c drop). Positive-skew, twin crowd-extremity gates. May fire rarely; drop funding gate first if <2 fills/wk.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 6 fills a day):
- funding_anchor
- {'symbol': 'BTC', 'below': 0}
- sentiment_anchor
- {'below': 20}
- 24h volume at least
- 3000
- YES ask moved by (¢)
- -8
- over the last (min)
- 60
- YES ask at most
- 0.6
- YES ask at least
- 0.25
What its own trades say — Crypto Fear Reversion
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.2-0.4 — 8 of 12 trades at $-1.472/trade vs $-1.077 overall.
Average entry price 0.388; an average win paid $6.77, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 8 | 25% | −$11.78 | $-1.472 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 4 | 50% | −$1.14 | $-0.285 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.2-0.4 | 8 | −$11.78 | $-1.472 | $-3.16 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? | YES | 0.37 | −$5.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? | YES | 0.51 | −$5.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? | YES | 0.25 | −$5.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? | YES | 0.44 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? | YES | 0.37 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Crypto Fear Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-06-11 | Claude 5 fleet-rebuild deploy |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.