Crypto Tail-Optionality
51 paper trades, lost $108.26, won 10% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.
51paper trades closed
−$108.26net, paper
10%trades that won
$-2.123per trade (expected value)
longshot buyerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Crypto Tail-Optionality
Buy YES on Polymarket crypto-milestone markets trading 5-25c with at least $2k 24h volume AND >7 days to expiration. Captures long-horizon optionality on improbable-but-not-impossible events.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- closes no sooner than (h)
- 168
- 24h volume at least
- 2000
- YES ask at most
- 0.25
- YES ask at least
- 0.05
What its own trades say — Crypto Tail-Optionality
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.0-0.2 — 36 of 51 trades at $-2.685/trade vs $-2.123 overall.
Average entry price 0.129; an average win paid $24.35, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 36 | 6% | −$96.66 | $-2.685 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 15 | 20% | −$11.60 | $-0.773 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.0-0.2 | 36 | −$96.66 | $-2.685 | $-20.23 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? | YES | 0.05 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | YES | 0.16 | −$5.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | YES | 0.12 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | YES | 0.05 | −$5.00 |
| Roland Garros WTA: Solana Sierra vs Sorana Cirstea | YES | 0.25 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Crypto Tail-Optionality
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-05-23 | initial version (backfilled) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.