Events Panic Reversion (Original)
47 paper trades, made $4.02, won 43% of them; the trades say it was ahead on paper when it was archived.
47paper trades closed
$4.02net, paper
43%trades that won
$0.086per trade (expected value)
profitablethe shape of the loss
What it tried — Events Panic Reversion (Original)
The ORIGINAL pre-modification config of events-panic-reversion, redeployed standalone (@dave). This v1 was the best winner: +5.16 over 134 trades, +0.49 EV/trade, before two Grok mutations bled it back. Mid-band Poly panic reversion: buy YES 0.30-0.70 after an 8c drop in 30min, vol>=5000. Falsifier: kill if expectancy <=0 after 30 settled trades (the original cleared +0.49).
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):
- 24h volume at least
- 5000
- YES ask moved by (¢)
- -8
- over the last (min)
- 30
- YES ask at most
- 0.7
- YES ask at least
- 0.3
What its own trades say — Events Panic Reversion (Original)
Average entry price 0.425; an average win paid $6.95, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 20 | 35% | $4.74 | $0.237 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 22 | 50% | $8.70 | $0.395 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 5 | 40% | −$9.42 | $-1.884 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.6-0.8 | 5 | −$9.42 | $-1.884 | $-9.85 |
| hour (UTC) 0 | 39 | −$0.98 | $-0.025 | $-4.33 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I | YES | 0.41 | −$5.00 |
| LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner | YES | 0.35 | −$5.00 |
| Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) | YES | 0.42 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? | YES | 0.32 | −$5.00 |
| Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) | YES | 0.46 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Events Panic Reversion (Original)
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-06-11 | Redeploy of events-panic-reversion v1 original (Dave) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.