Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
39 paper trades, lost $34.47, won 31% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.
39paper trades closed
−$34.47net, paper
31%trades that won
$-0.884per trade (expected value)
longshot buyerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
A winning improvement Grok discovered for "Current-Events Panic Reversion" in the Evolution Lab - now trading live on its own. Raise vol_24h_min to 10000 and lower yes_ask_max to 0.5 to filter higher-liquidity, cheaper panic setups.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):
- 24h volume at least
- 10000
- YES ask moved by (¢)
- -10
- over the last (min)
- 30
- YES ask at most
- 0.45
- YES ask at least
- 0.3
What its own trades say — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
Loss concentrates in hour (UTC) 12 — 8 of 39 trades at $-1.859/trade vs $-0.884 overall.
Average entry price 0.37; an average win paid $8.38, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 26 | 27% | −$27.58 | $-1.061 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 13 | 38% | −$6.89 | $-0.53 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hour (UTC) 12 | 8 | −$14.87 | $-1.859 | $-7.8 |
| entry price 0.2-0.4 | 26 | −$27.58 | $-1.061 | $-4.6 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie | YES | 0.41 | −$5.00 |
| KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz | YES | 0.4 | −$5.00 |
| Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic | YES | 0.44 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | YES | 0.4 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner | YES | 0.36 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-06-12 | Forked from Evolution Lab winner #421 (Grok mutation) |
| v2 | active | 2026-06-13 | AI (Grok) auto-promoted winner: Tighten yes_ask to 0.3-0.45 and ya_change_max_cents=-10 to filter stronger panic signals. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.