Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
53 paper trades, lost $37.83, won 38% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
53paper trades closed
−$37.83net, paper
38%trades that won
$-0.714per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
A winning improvement Grok discovered for "Current-Events Panic Reversion" in the Evolution Lab - now trading live on its own. Raise vol_24h_min to 8000 for more liquid names while keeping 30-min panic window; expect fewer but higher-quality fills.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 6 fills a day):
- 24h volume at least
- 8000
- YES ask moved by (¢)
- -8
- over the last (min)
- 60
- YES ask at most
- 0.75
- YES ask at least
- 0.25
What its own trades say — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.2-0.4 — 27 of 53 trades at $-1.562/trade vs $-0.714 overall.
Average entry price 0.415; an average win paid $6.36, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 27 | 22% | −$42.18 | $-1.562 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 20 | 45% | −$2.61 | $-0.131 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 6 | 83% | $6.96 | $1.16 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.2-0.4 | 27 | −$42.18 | $-1.562 | $-22.9 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 | YES | 0.32 | −$5.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | YES | 0.54 | −$5.00 |
| Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score | YES | 0.34 | −$5.00 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) | YES | 0.46 | −$5.00 |
| Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) | YES | 0.42 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-06-07 | Forked from Evolution Lab winner #45 (Grok mutation) |
| v2 | active | 2026-06-09 | AI (Grok) auto-promoted winner: Widen yes_ask to 0.25-0.75 and extend ya_change_window_min to 60 to increase trade count to 15+ on broader panic windows without new filters. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.