Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
1,148 paper trades, lost $4,679.20, won 6% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
1,148paper trades closed
−$4,679.20net, paper
6%trades that won
$-4.076per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
A winning improvement Grok discovered for "Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion" in the Evolution Lab - now trading live on its own. Tighten yes_ask to 0.3-0.45 and ya_change_max_cents=-10 to filter stronger panic signals.
What its own trades say — Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
Loss is UNIFORM — no time, price band, platform or side is carrying it. The entry rule itself has no edge (1148 trades at $-4.076/trade).
Average entry price 0.446; an average win paid $3.22, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 608 | 0% | −$2,982.81 | $-4.906 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 35 | 29% | −$24.72 | $-0.706 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 19 | 37% | −$22.48 | $-1.183 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 12 | 67% | −$2.95 | $-0.246 |
| 0.8-1.0 | 474 | 8% | −$1,646.24 | $-3.473 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.0-0.2 | 608 | −$2,982.81 | $-4.906 | $-504.64 |
| hour (UTC) 18 | 202 | −$929.54 | $-4.602 | $-106.25 |
| hour (UTC) 19 | 170 | −$787.90 | $-4.635 | $-95.03 |
| hour (UTC) 17 | 200 | −$894.99 | $-4.475 | $-79.8 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games Total: O/U 3.5 | YES | 0.44 | −$5.00 |
| KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz | YES | 0.31 | −$5.00 |
| KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers | YES | 0.41 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner | YES | 0.41 | −$5.00 |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) | YES | 0.35 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-06-13 | Forked from Evolution Lab winner #466 (Grok mutation) |
| v2 | retired | 2026-06-16 | AI (Grok) auto-promoted winner: Widen yes_ask to 0.25-0.5 and lower vol_24h_min to 5000 to raise trade count toward 15+. |
| v3 | active | 2026-06-16 | AI (Grok) auto-promoted winner: Loosen ya_change_max_cents to -5 and window to 60 to capture more reversion setups. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.