Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
1,117 paper trades, lost $4,645.39, won 5% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
1,117paper trades closed
−$4,645.39net, paper
5%trades that won
$-4.159per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
A winning improvement Grok discovered for "Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion" in the Evolution Lab - now trading live on its own. Widen yes_ask to 0.25-0.5 and lower vol_24h_min to 5000 to raise trade count toward 15+.
What its own trades say — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
Loss is UNIFORM — no time, price band, platform or side is carrying it. The entry rule itself has no edge (1117 trades at $-4.159/trade).
Average entry price 0.448; an average win paid $2.41, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 608 | 0% | −$2,982.81 | $-4.906 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 14 | 29% | −$5.67 | $-0.405 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 9 | 44% | −$7.72 | $-0.858 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 12 | 67% | −$2.95 | $-0.246 |
| 0.8-1.0 | 474 | 8% | −$1,646.24 | $-3.473 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.0-0.2 | 608 | −$2,982.81 | $-4.906 | $-454.18 |
| hour (UTC) 18 | 202 | −$929.54 | $-4.602 | $-89.49 |
| hour (UTC) 19 | 170 | −$787.90 | $-4.635 | $-80.92 |
| hour (UTC) 17 | 200 | −$894.99 | $-4.475 | $-63.2 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| A's vs Chicago C Winner? | YES | 0.33 | −$5.00 |
| Pittsburgh vs Houston Winner? | YES | 0.01 | −$5.00 |
| New York M vs Seattle Winner? | YES | 0.01 | −$5.00 |
| Colorado vs Los Angeles A Winner? | YES | 0.01 | −$5.00 |
| Los Angeles D vs Arizona Winner? | YES | 0.14 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-06-16 | Forked from Evolution Lab winner #646 (Grok mutation) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.