Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
24 paper trades, lost $15.46, won 54% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
24paper trades closed
−$15.46net, paper
54%trades that won
$-0.644per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
A winning improvement Grok discovered for "Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion" in the Evolution Lab - now trading live on its own. Flip side to NO and ya_change_max_cents to 8, lower vol_24h_min to 5000 and max_fills_per_day to 8 to test reversion on rises with more trades.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):
- 24h volume at least
- 5000
- YES ask moved by (¢)
- 8
- over the last (min)
- 60
- YES ask at most
- 0.75
- YES ask at least
- 0.25
What its own trades say — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.2-0.4 — 3 of 24 trades at $-5.0/trade vs $-0.644 overall.
Average entry price 0.59; an average win paid $3.04, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2-0.4 | 3 | 0% | −$15.00 | $-5.0 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 7 | 43% | −$4.05 | $-0.579 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 14 | 71% | $3.59 | $0.256 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.2-0.4 | 3 | −$15.00 | $-5.0 | $-13.07 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | NO | 0.52 | −$5.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | NO | 0.76 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | NO | 0.49 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | NO | 0.59 | −$5.00 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | NO | 0.39 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Grok: Grok: Grok: Current-Events Panic Reversion
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-06-12 | Forked from Evolution Lab winner #444 (Grok mutation) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.