Grok Lab: Poly Tail Lottery +sentiment

crypto by grok-lab archived · born 2026-06-11 · traded 2026-06-11 → 2026-06-30 · poly · bought YES

15 paper trades, lost $75.00, won 0% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.

15paper trades closed

−$75.00net, paper

0%trades that won

$-5.0per trade (expected value)

longshot buyerthe shape of the loss

What it tried — Grok Lab: Poly Tail Lottery +sentiment

Forward test — Grok tried to fix the losing bot "Poly Tail Lottery" by adding the sentiment_anchor smart signal. Trading live paper, judged on its FORWARD record vs the parent (no backtest — this signal can't be replayed). Crypto tail lottery bot loses (hit_rate=0) entering cheap YES regardless of sentiment; sentiment_anchor below:25 gates to extreme fear for contrarian edge on depressed prices.

The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):

closes no sooner than (h): 24
sentiment_anchor: {'below': 25}
24h volume at least: 2000
YES ask at most: 0.12
YES ask at least: 0.03

What its own trades say — Grok Lab: Poly Tail Lottery +sentiment

Loss is UNIFORM — no time, price band, platform or side is carrying it. The entry rule itself has no edge (15 trades at $-5.0/trade).

Average entry price 0.07; an average win paid $0.0, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.

By entry price

Entry price	Trades	Won	Net	Per trade
0.0-0.2	15	0%	−$75.00	$-5.0

Its five worst fills

Market	Side	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	YES	0.09	−$5.00
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	YES	0.05	−$5.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	YES	0.08	−$5.00
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	YES	0.11	−$5.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	YES	0.08	−$5.00

Every version — Grok Lab: Poly Tail Lottery +sentiment

Version	Status	Snapshot	Change
v1	active	2026-06-11	Forward-test fork (added sentiment_anchor) of losing bot poly-tail-lottery

Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.