Morning-Low Lock Watcher
288 paper trades, lost $1.44, won 94% of them; the trades say it won often and lost big when it lost — the tail-seller shape.
288paper trades closed
−$1.44net, paper
94%trades that won
$-0.005per trade (expected value)
tail sellerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Morning-Low Lock Watcher
Catches LOW brackets that 'lock' early via the 06Z-12Z morning RMK observation. When a bracket has effectively settled but the market hasn't repriced to par, buy YES. Tight window: only fires the morning of close.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- closes within (h)
- 18
- closes no sooner than (h)
- 0.5
- title_contains
- ['minimum']
- YES ask at most
- 0.97
- YES ask at least
- 0.92
What its own trades say — Morning-Low Lock Watcher
Loss concentrates in hour (UTC) 4 — 12 of 288 trades at $-0.982/trade vs $-0.005 overall.
Average entry price 0.942; an average win paid $0.31, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8-1.0 | 288 | 94% | −$1.44 | $-0.005 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hour (UTC) 4 | 12 | −$11.78 | $-0.982 | $-11.72 |
| hour (UTC) 3 | 19 | −$9.75 | $-0.513 | $-9.65 |
| hour (UTC) 12 | 79 | −$7.28 | $-0.092 | $-6.87 |
| hour (UTC) 15 | 10 | −$2.70 | $-0.27 | $-2.65 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.94 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.92 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on May 24, 2026? | YES | 0.93 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >58° on May 30, 2026? | YES | 0.97 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on May 30, 2026? | YES | 0.97 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Morning-Low Lock Watcher
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-05-22 | initial version (backfilled) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.