MLB Model Edge

sports by claude5 archived · born 2026-06-11 · kalshi, poly · bought YES

Never fired. Archived without a single paper trade.

0paper trades closed

—net, paper

—trades that won

What it tried — MLB Model Edge

REPLACES sports-underdog-bias: only trade when our win-prob model disagrees with price by >=5pts, mid-band (no skew trap). A bet on model calibration. Falsifier: after 50 trades, settle rate not >avg entry price by ~3pts = model edge illusory.

The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 6 fills a day):

closes within (h): 12
sports_anchor: {'min_edge': 5}
24h volume at least: 5000
YES ask at most: 0.7
YES ask at least: 0.3

Every version — MLB Model Edge

Version	Status	Snapshot	Change
v1	active	2026-06-11	Claude 5 fleet-rebuild deploy

Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.