Politics Spike Fade
40 paper trades, lost $39.24, won 15% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.
40paper trades closed
−$39.24net, paper
15%trades that won
$-0.981per trade (expected value)
longshot buyerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Politics Spike Fade
Polymarket politics markets in the 10-30c band with a 1.5x volume spike in the last hour. Catches sudden flow into low-conviction political bets - usually news-driven overreactions that fade within hours.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- 24h volume at least
- 2000
- vol_spike_ratio_min
- 1.5
- over the last (min)
- 120
- YES ask at most
- 0.3
- YES ask at least
- 0.1
What its own trades say — Politics Spike Fade
Loss concentrates in entry price 0.0-0.2 — 16 of 40 trades at $-1.875/trade vs $-0.981 overall.
Average entry price 0.199; an average win paid $21.79, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 16 | 6% | −$30.00 | $-1.875 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 24 | 21% | −$9.24 | $-0.385 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| entry price 0.0-0.2 | 16 | −$30.00 | $-1.875 | $-14.3 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | YES | 0.28 | −$5.00 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | YES | 0.24 | −$5.00 |
| Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 | YES | 0.13 | −$5.00 |
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | YES | 0.2 | −$5.00 |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang | YES | 0.18 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Politics Spike Fade
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-05-23 | initial version (backfilled) |
| v2 | active | 2026-06-08 | AI (Grok) auto-promoted winner: Widen ya_change_window_min to 120 to capture cleaner momentum and cut noise around spikes. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.