Poly Tail Lottery
What it tried — Poly Tail Lottery
Buy YES on Polymarket contracts trading 3-12 cents with at least $2k volume and >24h to close. Most lose 100% of the small stake; occasional 10-30x wins. Cap at 8 fills per day so this doesn't over-fire on cheap markets. Designed to diversify the catalog away from fade-strategy economics (small wins, full-stake losses).
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 8 fills a day):
- closes no sooner than (h)
- 24
- 24h volume at least
- 2000
- YES ask at most
- 0.12
- YES ask at least
- 0.03
What its own trades say — Poly Tail Lottery
Loss is UNIFORM — no time, price band, platform or side is carrying it. The entry rule itself has no edge (79 trades at $-2.398/trade).
Average entry price 0.072; an average win paid $46.39, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 79 | 5% | −$189.44 | $-2.398 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hour (UTC) 9 | 6 | −$30.00 | $-5.0 | $-15.61 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | YES | 0.08 | −$5.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | YES | 0.05 | −$5.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | YES | 0.09 | −$5.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | YES | 0.12 | −$5.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | YES | 0.09 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Poly Tail Lottery
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-05-24 | initial version (backfilled) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.