Sports Underdog Bias
115 paper trades, lost $144.69, won 20% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.
115paper trades closed
−$144.69net, paper
20%trades that won
$-1.258per trade (expected value)
longshot buyerthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Sports Underdog Bias
Buy YES on Polymarket sports contracts trading 15-35c with at least $5k 24h volume, closing within 24 hours. Fades the favorite by riding longshot tail probabilities that retail systematically underprices.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill):
- closes within (h)
- 24
- 24h volume at least
- 5000
- YES ask at most
- 0.35
- YES ask at least
- 0.15
What its own trades say — Sports Underdog Bias
Loss concentrates in hour (UTC) 10 — 9 of 115 trades at $-5.0/trade vs $-1.258 overall.
Average entry price 0.277; an average win paid $13.71, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 9 | 33% | $40.14 | $4.46 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 106 | 19% | −$184.83 | $-1.744 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hour (UTC) 10 | 9 | −$45.00 | $-5.0 | $-33.68 |
| hour (UTC) 18 | 6 | −$30.00 | $-5.0 | $-22.45 |
| hour (UTC) 19 | 6 | −$30.00 | $-5.0 | $-22.45 |
| hour (UTC) 1 | 5 | −$25.00 | $-5.0 | $-18.71 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? | YES | 0.34 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals | YES | 0.35 | −$5.00 |
| Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif | YES | 0.31 | −$5.00 |
| Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi | YES | 0.2 | −$5.00 |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff | YES | 0.26 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Sports Underdog Bias
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | active | 2026-05-23 | initial version (backfilled) |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.