Weather Deep-Discount NO-Tail

weather by tinycorp archived · born 2026-05-24 · traded 2026-05-24 → 2026-06-16 · kalshi · bought YES

228 paper trades, lost $685.97, won 10% of them; the trades say it bought cheap tickets that rarely paid — the longshot-buyer shape.

228paper trades closed

−$685.97net, paper

10%trades that won

$-3.009per trade (expected value)

longshot buyerthe shape of the loss

What it tried — Weather Deep-Discount NO-Tail

Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets trading 12-30c — the long-tail brackets that the market thinks are unlikely. Most lose, but each win pays 4-8x. Cap at 12 fills/day to avoid over-firing on the many low-price brackets that exist. Diversifies the catalog away from fade-economics — wins are large here, losses bounded by small entry cost.

The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 12 fills a day):

closes within (h): 24
YES ask at most: 0.3
YES ask at least: 0.12

What its own trades say — Weather Deep-Discount NO-Tail

Loss concentrates in entry price 0.0-0.2 — 113 of 228 trades at $-4.365/trade vs $-3.009 overall.

Average entry price 0.2; an average win paid $15.64, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.

By entry price

Entry price	Trades	Won	Net	Per trade
0.0-0.2	113	2%	−$493.21	$-4.365
0.2-0.4	115	17%	−$192.76	$-1.676

Where the loss concentrated

Slice	Trades	Net	Per trade	Excess loss vs the bot's average
entry price 0.0-0.2	113	−$493.21	$-4.365	$-153.23
hour (UTC) 12	12	−$60.00	$-5.0	$-23.89
hour (UTC) 1	19	−$76.48	$-4.025	$-19.3
hour (UTC) 2	7	−$35.00	$-5.0	$-13.94

Its five worst fills

Market	Side	Entry	Result
Will the minimum temperature be <56° on May 24, 2026?	YES	0.13	−$5.00
Will the maximum temperature be >86° on May 24, 2026?	YES	0.14	−$5.00
Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on May 24, 2026?	YES	0.16	−$5.00
Will the minimum temperature be 57-58° on May 24, 2026?	YES	0.23	−$5.00
Will the maximum temperature be 83-84° on May 24, 2026?	YES	0.23	−$5.00

Every version — Weather Deep-Discount NO-Tail

Version	Status	Snapshot	Change
v1	active	2026-05-24	initial version (backfilled)

Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.