Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
208 paper trades, lost $350.82, won 39% of them; the trades say it lost a little, evenly — no edge in the entry rule.
208paper trades closed
−$350.82net, paper
39%trades that won
$-1.687per trade (expected value)
edge too thinthe shape of the loss
What it tried — Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
Buy YES on Kalshi weather brackets only when the NWS forecast for that day matches the bracket (forecast > 50F for HIGH brackets, < 60F for LOW brackets, etc.). Uses free NWS gridpoint forecasts — no API key. Filters out brackets where the forecast strongly disagrees with the bracket range.
The entry rule, as configured (sizing: flat, $5.0 a fill, at most 10 fills a day):
- closes within (h)
- 24
- YES ask at most
- 0.95
- YES ask at least
- 0.5
What its own trades say — Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
Loss concentrates in side NO — 130 of 208 trades at $-2.505/trade vs $-1.687 overall.
Average entry price 0.491; an average win paid $3.4, an average loss cost $5.0. Arithmetic on the closed trades, no model involved.
By entry price
| Entry price | Trades | Won | Net | Per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.2 | 41 | 2% | −$169.29 | $-4.129 |
| 0.2-0.4 | 40 | 18% | −$83.71 | $-2.093 |
| 0.4-0.6 | 53 | 42% | −$57.83 | $-1.091 |
| 0.6-0.8 | 42 | 57% | −$35.58 | $-0.847 |
| 0.8-1.0 | 32 | 88% | −$4.41 | $-0.138 |
Where the loss concentrated
| Slice | Trades | Net | Per trade | Excess loss vs the bot's average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| side NO | 130 | −$325.62 | $-2.505 | $-106.34 |
| entry price 0.0-0.2 | 41 | −$169.29 | $-4.129 | $-100.12 |
| hour (UTC) 0 | 158 | −$304.17 | $-1.925 | $-37.6 |
| entry price 0.2-0.4 | 40 | −$83.71 | $-2.093 | $-16.24 |
Its five worst fills
| Market | Side | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on May 24, 2026? | YES | 0.67 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >70° on May 24, 2026? | YES | 0.65 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on May 23, 2026? | YES | 0.5 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 68-69° on May 24, 2026? | YES | 0.6 | −$5.00 |
| Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on May 24, 2026? | YES | 0.52 | −$5.00 |
Every version — Weather NWS-Aligned Fade
| Version | Status | Snapshot | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | retired | 2026-05-24 | initial version (backfilled) |
| v2 | active | 2026-05-29 | v2 — gate-free NO at 50-95¢ (dropped untested nws_anchor). Replay +$96. |
Paper trades only — simulated fills at quoted prices, never money. The formula is archived, not deleted. Back to the Graveyard · What each signal means.