Weather signals — what they're saying right now
These are the live weather signals you can gate a paper-trading bot on — the same feeds our wx_anchor and nws_anchor bots use, across the 20 cities that settle Kalshi daily-temperature markets. Weather is the cleanest edge in the library: the official high is forecast well and the day resolves in slow motion — once the peak can't be beaten, the bracket is settled before the market closes. Each card shows its real current reading plus a one-click way to build a bot. New to the category? Start with the weather primer.
Highs locked now wx_anchor
The flagship edge: only trade once the day's official high (or low) is locked — it physically can't change. A bracket still trading off 0/100¢ when the outcome is already decided is the cleanest mispricing we track.
NWS forecast nws_anchor
The National Weather Service forecast high for today across the board — the number a forecast-crossing bot gates on. Today's highs span a wide range; the warmest and coolest cities are where the temperature ladders are widest.
Live city board wx_anchor
The running high so far today vs the NWS forecast high, for every Kalshi temperature city, with whether the official high is locked yet. Sorted by how warm it is right now — the cities near the top are closest to settling.
| City | High so far | Forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
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Ensemble agreement open-meteo
An independent read on today's high: the GFS ensemble runs the forecast ~30 times from slightly different starting conditions. When the runs agree tightly, today's high is close to knowable and the bracket is near-decided; when they spread wide, the bracket is a genuine coin-flip even if the single NWS number looks confident. A large gap between the ensemble median and the NWS forecast (shown when ≥3°) is a model disagreement worth a look. Sorted by widest spread first — the least-settled markets at the top.
| City | Ens median | Spread | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|
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Every reading here is real, public data — the observations and NWS forecast come straight from the National Weather Service, and the ensemble agreement is the live Open-Meteo GFS ensemble (~30 members); no forecasts of our own, no fabricated numbers; a value shows — when there's no live reading. The universal Proven settle-rate signal (our own resolved-market history) also works on weather bots. Markets settle on the official CF6 station number, not your phone. Everything on the site is simulated paper trading — a sandbox to test ideas, not financial advice.